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RevPAR will reach its cyclicalo low point in the third quarterof 2009, closinvg the escalating trend of declines in RevPAR that began in the thirde quarter of 2008, according to . "The good news is that the botto of the current cycle forthe U.S. hoteol industry is soon to said R. Mark Woodworth, president of PKF Hospitality Research, in a news “The bad news is that 2009 will be the weakest year on record for the domesticlodgingh industry, and 2010 is going to be disappointinhg as well. If you are wondering when we'l l start to see actual growth in then you'll have to wait until 2011.
However, if you want to know when the operatingb environment is going to get a littleless that's happening right now." Lodging forecasts presented in the June 2009 editionm of Hotel Horizons are based on Smith Travepl Research hotel performance data througuh March 2009 and Moody's Economy.com's May 2009 economic forecasf for the nation. Given the correlationj between employment andlodginhg demand, the new expectationn is for RevPAR to decline 17.5 percent in followed by another 3.5 percent decline in 2010. Year-over-yearf quarterly declines in the demanefor U.S.
lodging accommodations started in the first quarter of 2008 and peaked at negativse 8 percent in the first quarterof 2009. The June 2009 editiohn of Hotel Horizons forecasts demand to decline each of the remaininv quartersof 2009, but at a diminishing pace. The projectede quarterly declines in demand for the remainder of 2009 averagejust 4.7 Beyond 2009, the forecast calles for average annual increases in demand of 3.2 percent for the next four well above the 1.9 percent long-term average. But givenn the forecast 17.5 percent decline in RevPAfR for allof 2009, PKF-HR is projecting total hoteol revenues to decrease 16 perceny for the year.
In 2011 and PKF-HR forecasts that RevPAR will increasre on an average annual basisof 9.2 while profits will rise at a 17.8 percen pace.
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