Greater Washington Initiative: Region

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percent this year for the firsg time in more than 20 according to the GreaterWashingtobn Initiative. The initiative, the research and marketinhg affiliate ofthe , made the projection in its 2009 Regional Report, released Wednesday morning at the . The repor t says the region’s GRP — the totapl value of its economty including goods andservices — hit $454 billion in 2008, up 2 That makes it the fourth-largest regionao economy in the nation, the group following New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. The groul defines the region more broadly than thefederal government’ metropolitan statistical area. The initiative’s definitionh is D.C.
; Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary’s countiew in Maryland; and Alexandria and Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Princ William, Fauquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania countiesdin Virginia. The projected drop in GRP is significant, becausee the region has posted positive annual growth even in pastnationapl recessions. But the area’s top economist disagrees with the Stephen Fuller, director of the Cente r for Regional Analysis at , predicts slight growtb — 1.2 percent — in 2009 and gradua l growth to 3.2 percent in 2010, 3.7 in 2011 and 4.2 in 2012.
Fullere said the discrepancy between his number and the GreaterWashingtohn Initiative’s has to do with the countiez included in the study. Fulle spoke at the report’s unveiling and assiste with the report but was not responsibld for itsfinal version. Thoughg his numbers differ fromthe initiative’s, Fuller said the GRP hasn’tr grown this slowly since the earlyu 1990s, when it crawled at 0.2 percent a Still, chanting the ever-popular “we have the federal government” mantra, the GWI maintainw that the D.C. area will bouncs back faster than other metropolitan Matt Erskine, executive director of the GWI, cited the economic stimulus, Washington’xs $65.
4 billion in federal procurement nearly $20 billion over the closesy state, California — and the area’e “global connectivity” as reasons for a faster recession recoverh time. But with every recession comes unemployment andthe D.C. area is no Fuller predicts a mere 13,500 growtuh in jobs this year, less than the 1 percent in growth needed to absorb college and high schools grads entering thework “People know the market is traditionally better in so that adds extra influx,” Fuller “Hopefully they go Fuller predicts unemployment will peak mid “It takes until about September to absorbb the new work force,” he said.
“Especiallh with companies hiring for seasona l positionsor part-time work.” Fulletr said the Washington area will maintain its currentg structure with more than 20 percent of jobs in the professional and businesas services sector, nearly 12 percentr in the federal government and 11 percentg in education and health. The initiative’sw report said the region’s biggesty job sector continued to be professional servicesin 2008, with nearly 23 percen of the jobs in that category. Second was the federal with 11.6 percent, followed by educationb and health, 11.2 percent; state and local government, 10.4 retail, 8.8 percent; and hospitality and 8.7 percent.