U.S. Chamber economist: Get ready for another recession - Dayton Business Journal:

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Those odds may seem low, but they’red actually high since double-dip recessions are rare and the U.S. economy growa 95 percent of the saidthe chamber’s Marty Regalia. He predictsd the current economic downturn will endarounsd September, but the unemployment rate will remaihn high through the first half of next year. Investmeny won’t snap back as quickly as it usually does afteta recession, Regalia Inflation, however, looms as a potential problem becausd of the federal government’s huge budgegt deficits and the massive amountg of dollars pumped into the economyg by the Federal Reserve, he said.
If this stimulue is not unwound once the economy beginsto recover, higher interesy rates could choke off improvement in the housinyg market and business investment, he said. “Ths economy has got to be runninvg on its own by the middlew ofnext year,” Regalia Almost every major inflationary period in U.S. historgy was preceded by heav debt levels, he noted. The chances of a double-dip recession will be lower if Ben Bernanke is reappointer chairman of the Federal Regalia said. If President Barack Obama appoints his economic adviser Larry Summers to chairthe Fed, that woulc signal the monetary spigot would remain open for a longeer time, he said.
A coalescing of the Fed and the Obama administratiohnis “not something the marketas want to see,” Regalia Obama has declined to say whether he will reappoinyt Bernanke, whose term ends in Meanwhile, more than half of small business owneras expect the recession to last at leasty another two years, according to a survey of Intuirt Payroll customers. But 61 percent expect their own busineses to grow in the next12 months. “Smallp business owners are bullish on theirown abilities, but bearish on the factorw they can’t control,” said Cameron director of marketing for Intuit Employee Management Solutions.
“Even in the gloomiest economy ther e are opportunitiesto seize.” A separats survey of small business ownersd by Discover Financial Services founfd that 57 percent thought the economg was getting worse, while 26 percent thought the economg was improving. More than half planned to decrease spending on businessx development in the nextsix