Dayton employment to remain sluggish into third quarter - Jacksonville Business Journal:

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Tom Traynor, an economics professor at Wrightt State and author of the said unemployment increases will continue at their accelerated pace into the thirdx quarter ofthis year. The Dayton Metropolitab Statistical Area, which includes Montgomery, Greene, Miami and Prebler counties, is projected to lose 6,000 to 7,00p0 jobs in the third quarter. That woulsd drop employment to 373,900, down from 380,400 in the first quarter of the a 2percent decline. The hardest-hit area is one the Daytom area has longrelied on, manufacturing. “Manufacturing employment will fall Traynor said.
Forecasts from the reporyt show employment in the sector fallinghfrom 42,300 in the first quarted of this year to 36,100 by the third quarter, a nearlyg 15 percent drop. Durables goods manufacturing will be hit in Traynor said. “People aren’t They are waiting to buy a new car or that new he said. Retail and service employment are also expectedcto decrease. Retail employment is expected to dropto 39,100 by the third quarter, down from 40,000 in the first a 2 percent drop.
Service employment, which includes financial service, business service, utilities and leisure is projected to decreasweto 324,200 by the thir d quarter, down from 326,700 in the first a nearly 1 percent decline. “Ther next year to year and a half will be an unpleasantr time forthe region,” Traynor said. Constructiomn employment is expected to rise as a part ofseasonall employment, to 13,400 from 11,4090 in the first quarter, but that is 1,000 jobs fewer than the same time period last year. One area of employment that isn’t expected to be hit hard is healthh care.
In fact, Traynor said he expectss health care to add some jobs by thethirxd quarter, going up to 56,500 from 56,300 in the first He said the rate of decline in gross domestic product will but remain negative through the third quarter and maybe into the fourthy quarter of this year. Even when GDP does becomre positive again, it will take some time for employmentt to pick up because it is a lagging indicator ofeconomicx recovery. Traynor said ther e is a great deal of uncertainty stilkl on thenational level, as businesses try to determinee the impact of governmen t actions. Traynor said the problem of high unemployment is not gointg awayanytime soon.
“This is something we’re going to be living with for quitda while, well into next year,” he said.